In an analysis posted today, Yahoo! news predicted that the presidential general election in November will come down to eight battleground states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire, with 100 electoral votes combined). While there is no doubt that these are key states, I believe a few more are in play too. Here, I’m going to run through the scenarios facing a few key swing states.
Florida. With 29 electoral votes, Florida is the crown jewel of the swing states. Floridians have a solid number of Republicans currently seated in office, but with varying levels of public approval. Republican Governor Rick Scott, elected in 2010, is one of the most unpopular governors in the country, primarily because he’s tackling tough issues and doing what he said he’d do when running for office…hey, politics can be messy stuff. Republican Freshman Senator Marco Rubio, a tea party favorite, and Democrat Senator Bill Nelson both hold positive approval ratings, but in the single digits. As of about a week ago, President Obama and Governor Romney were statistically in a near dead heat, with Obama possibly up a few points. It’s unclear whether placing Rubio on the ticket, which Romney is likely thinking long and hard about, would have any effect on Romney’s prospects, either positively or negatively (whether Rubio would accept a Vice Presidential nomination is a separate issue entirely).
New Mexico. Obama’s strength within New Mexico’s substantial Hispanic demographic puts the state’s five electoral votes out of Romney’s immediate grasp. But New Mexico does boast popular Republican Governor in Susana Martinez, and it would be unwise to underestimate what some campaigning could do for Romney’s prospects.
Nevada. Republican Governor Brian Sandoval defeated Democrat Harry Reid’s son in the 2010 gubernatorial election, and is currently one of the most popular governors in the country. With Sandoval’s support, Romney could conceivably make enough gains in Nevada to claim its six electoral votes. Obama is coming out of a slump in which he consistently polled negative ratings in Nevada, but is not out of the woods and Romney is currently polling close to him. Sandoval is also generating buzz as a possible candidate for Vice President, but as in Florida, it’s not clear whether that would have a substantial effect in November.
Wisconsin. With current Republican Governor Scott Walker facing a competitive recall election in June, the Republican base will be engaged and mobilized months before the presidential election. Should Walker be successful in his recall, the base will be energized and this could play a pivotal role in November. Yahoo! news has Wisconsin “Leaning Democrat” - I’d change that to “Independent” for now.
The bottom line. The Yahoo! article makes it seem as though reelection will be a cakewalk for Obama. Realistically though, it will be a battle to the very end, and while I’ve only gone over four states, I expect more than a few of the “independent” states will begin to shift toward Romney pretty soon.
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